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人民币持续贬值!海外资产配置迫在眉睫!

FABURIQI:2018-08-10 17:39 LAIYUAN:WEIZHI

7月初,美元兑人民币跌破6.7,为17年12月28日以来新低。面对汇率贬值压力,一般有两种应对模式:日本模式和俄罗斯模式。

 

 

日本模式——保汇率,弃房市!

 

1989NIAN5YUEKAISHI,RIBENBUDUANSHANGDIAOJIZHUNLILV,TIEXIANLVCONG1989NIANCHUDE2.50%KUAISUSHANGDIAOZHI1990NIANCHUDE5.25%,BINGZAI1990NIAN8YUEDAFUSHANGDIAOZHI6.00%。ZHEIYIWEIZHERIBENYANGXINGHUALESANNIANDUODESHIJIANJINXINGKUANSONG,DANZHIYONGLEYINIANDUODESHIJIANJIUJINSUOHUILAILE。

 

 

ZHEIRANGRIBENJINGJIFUCHULECANTONGDEDAIJIA,BUJINGUSHI、FANGSHIBAODIE,ERQIEZICHANJIAGEBENGPANYINFAYINXINGHUAIZHANG,JINGJIJINRUZICHANFUZHAIBIAOSHUAITUI。BIRURIJING225GUPIAOZHISHUCONG1989NIANDIDEGAODIAN38957BAODIE64%,DIEDAO1992NIAN8YUEDE14194,DANSHIRIYUANHUILVJIBENBAOCHIPINGWEN,1990NIANHOURIYUANDUIMEIYUANSHENZHIJIXUBAOCHISHENGZHIDETAISHI。

 

 

俄罗斯模式——保房价,弃汇率!

 

手机捕鱼 SHIYOUSHIELUOSIJINGJIDEZHIZHUCHANYE。YUANYOUJIAGEBAODIEYINFAELUOSILUBUBIANZHIYALI,ZIJINDAFUWAILIU。WEIYINGDUIZIJINWAILIU,ELUOSIYANGXINGBUDUANSHANGDIAOJIZHUNLILV,DANJINSUODEHUOBIZHENGCEWUYIDUIFANGDICHANSHICHANGBULI。

 

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手机捕鱼 BISHI,CONGJINGJIJIBENMIANLAISHUO,YAOXIANGZHENGJIUYOUJIABAODIEYINFADEJINGJISHUAITUI,BIXUCAIQUSHIDUKUANSONGDEZHENGCE;DANCONGHUILVCENGMIANLAISHUO,YAOXIANGWEICHILUBUJIANTING,JIUBIXUCAIQUJINSUODEHUOBIZHENGCE,DANLILVDETAISHENGHENKENENGSHIDEFANGDICHANSHICHANGCHUXIANDAFUDIAOZHENG。

 

 

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DANSHI,HUILVBIANZHISHIFANGLEJINGJIDEYALI,LUBUCHONGFENBIANZHIHOU,ELUOSIYANGXINGSHUNSHIXIADIAOLEJIZHUNLILV,LILVSHANGZHANGDUIFANGDICHANSHICHANGDECHONGJIDEDAOXUNSUHUANJIE,ZIBENWAILIUGUIMOYECHUXIANXIAJIANG。ZUIZHONG,ELUOSIFANGJIAMEIYOUSHOUDAOTAIDADEFUMIANYINGXIANG,JIBENCHUYUYIGESHANGSHENGQUSHIZHONG。

 

 

中国很可能弃汇率

 

NEIME,HUIGURIBENBAOHUILVMOSHIHEELUOSIBAOFANGJIAMOSHI,DUIWOMENYOUNAXIEQISHINI?

 

1、里子比面子重要。保汇率和保房价,无非是面子和里子的问题,保汇率的话,就是在国际市场上赢得了面子;保房价的话,对内需来说就是保住了里子。在贸易争端不断加剧的国际环境下,面子已经不太值钱,所以保房价的意义要明显高于保汇率。

 

2、保汇率的负面影响是经济崩盘,保房价的负面影响是通胀走高。保汇率的模式下,紧缩政策最终会刺破资产价格泡沫,那么后续引发的经济衰退就很恐怖,可能需要长达数十年的时间来恢复元气。保房价对经济的负面影响较小,因为汇率贬值预期得到集中释放之后,通常会在半年之内稳定下来,这时保房价的负面影响是通胀会走高,因为货币贬值后进口商品更贵了。

 

3、大幅贬值对普通居民影响较小。汇率大幅贬值,对产业来说,依赖进口原材料的行业受损,但依赖出口的行业受益,因为贬值后以本币计价的进口商品的价格更高了,但以外币计价的出口商品的价格改善了。对居民来说,高收入阶层受汇率大幅贬值的影响较大,相同的人民币资金转移到国外能购买的国外资产缩水了;但对普通大众来说影响较小,顶多每年一次的出国旅游需要积攒更多的人民币。如果是房价出现暴跌,那对普通人会有非常大的影响,甚至有房贷的人会选择违约。

 

人民币预期贬值,资本会外流

国内高净值人群趋向去海外买房,对冲风险!

 

RUGUORENMINBIBIANZHIYUQIQIANGLIE,ZIBENHUIWAILIU,DAOZHIGUONEIZICHANJIAGEXIADIE,DUIZIJINMINGANDEFANGJIAZIRANYEHUIXIADIE。BIRUDANGQIANMEIYUANSHENGZHIRENMINBIBIANZHI,GUONEIHENDUOGAOJINGZHIRENQUNQUXIANGQUHAIWAIMAIFANG,DUICHONGFENGXIAN。

 

CONGWEILAIFAZHANLAIKAN,MEIYUANSHENGZHIYUQIQIANGLI,RENMINBIBIANZHIHUOJIXUCHIXU。GUONEIDEFANGJIAZENMEZOU? RUGUOCHUXIANMEILIANCHUCHAOYUQIJIAXI、FANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHENGCEJIAOWANGGUOZHENG、ZIBENCHUTAOSHIKONGDENGQINGJING,HAIYOUHUIDAILAIYIXIEFENGXIAN。

 

 

手机捕鱼 RENMINBIBIANZHIYINFABENBIZICHANGUZHIXIAJIANG,DAOZHIJINRONG、DICHANDENGXIANGGUANBANKUAIZOURUO,TUOLEIZHENGTIDAPAN;LINGYIFANGMIAN,RENMINBIBIANZHIYUQIYIDANXINGCHENG,JIANGDAOZHIREQIANLIUCHU,AGUSUOCHUDELIUDONGXINGHUANJINGHUIXUNSUQUJIN。

 

手机捕鱼 YIZHIYILAI,DALIANGDEWAIZIZAIZHONGGUOZHANGQIYOUYIZHUANQIAN。YOUZHEIYANGYIGEXIAOHUA:YIGEMEIGUORENDAOZHONGGUOLIANCHIDAIHE,ZOUDESHIHOUBASHENGXIADEQIANHUANCHENGMEIYUAN,YINIANDENGYUBAICHIBAIHE。RUORENMINBIBIANZHI,LIANRENMINBIDUOTOUCHAOJIAJIANGSUNSHICANZHONG。

 

手机捕鱼 YOUYIGE“QIAOHE”:RENMINBICHIXUSHENGZHIDE9NIAN,YESHIZHONGGUOFANGDICHANJIAGECHIXUSHANGZHANGDE9NIAN。LILUNSHANGHUIYOUDALIANGDEMEIYUANJINRUZHONGGUO,HUANCHENGRENMINBIZICHAN,YIGUIBIXIANGDUIDEMEIYUANBIANZHI。ZHEIXIEMEIYUANJINRUHOU,DADUOYIFANGCHANXINGSHICUNZAI。GUOQUSHUNIANFANGJIADAZHANGDEYUANYINZHIYISHIRENMINBISHENGZHI,ZAIZHEIGEGUOCHENGZHONG,YONGYOUFANGCHANDERENMENZICHANXUNSUSHENGZHI。FANGCHANSHENGZHIDEYUQI,YOUJIFALEGENGDUORENMAIFANGDEYUWANG。

 

手机捕鱼 RUORENMINBIBIANZHI,TOUZIZHEJIUHUIGANDAOYOULV,HUIYOUZICHANCHECHU,YOUQISHINEIXIEZAOQICONGHAIWAIYONGRUGUONEIDEZIJIN,HUIYINRENMINBIBIANZHIERLIUCHUZHONGGUO,TOUZIYUGUOWAIFANGCHAN,YIQIUCAICHANBUHUISUOSHUI。

 

综合来看,有几个判断:

 

手机捕鱼 1、RENMINBIHAIXUYAOBIANZHI,RANGBIZHIHUIGUICHANGTAI,GUJIZHEIBOBIANZHIHUIKANDAO1:7DEHUILV。

 

手机捕鱼 2、RENMINBIZAIBIANZHIGUOCHENGZHONG,GUONEILIUDONGXINGYUELAIYUECHA,GUSHI,ZHAISHI,HUISHI,SHANGPINBIAOXIANDOUBUHUIHAO,HUIJIXUZHEIZHONGSISHADEJUMIAN,YANGXINGBIXUYAOJINYIBUJIANGDICUNKUANZHUNBEIJINLV,DANTONGSHIYEYAOFANGZHIZIJINLIURULOUSHI。QIANMIANHENJIANDAN,DANHOUMIANHENJIANNAN。DANWOMENYEKANDAO,GUORENPAOQIDEGUSHI,ZHENGZAIBEIWAIZICHAODI,EDUBUDUANZENGJIA,BEISHANGZIJINBUDUANLIURU,AGUDEGUZHIJIBENCHUYULISHIDIGUSHUIPING。MUQIANZAIQUANSHIJIEFANWEIYESHIZUIDIDE。XIANZAIGUOJIAYELEYUKANDAOZHEIZHONGQINGKUANG,ZIBENSHICHANGWAIZILIURU,YENENGHUANJIEREQIANLIUCHUDEYALI。SUOYIXIANZAIGUSHIDIDIAN,DUIYUBAOWAICHUYOUHAOCHU,KEYIJIANHUANWAICHUXIAJIANGDESUDU。

 

手机捕鱼 3、WAICHUHUIJIXUXIAJIANG,YALIJUDA。WOMENZAOJIUSHUOLE,2015NIANDUIGUOJIXINGSHIDEWUPAN,CUOWUDEFANGDICHANFANGSHUI,GAODASHUINIU,RANGWOMENSUNSHILESHANGWANYIDEWAICHU,SUIRANHOULAIRENCUOLE,YEGAOLEFANGZHUBUCHAO,DANYIRANMEIYOUXIAOGUO,FANGJIAHAIZAIGAOWEI,ZHEIJIURANGGUONEIDESIXIANGSHIZHONGWUFATONGYI。YIGEWUFATONGYISIXIANGDEQIUDUIHENNANYINGDEBISAI,YIGEJINGJIZHENGCEGENGSHIRUCI。GUJIZHEICIMEIYUANBAIDIANXINGJUN,SUODAILAIDESUNSHIRENGRANBUHUIXIAO,WAICHURENGJIANGYOUJIQIANYIMEIYUANDESUNSHI。

 

4、LOUSHIYIJINGCHENGLEZHONGGUOJINGJIDEZUIDAWANJI,JIUXIANGYIGELIUZIYUEZHANGYUEDA,NIYUESHIXIABUQUSHOUZUOSHOUSHU,TAJIUYUEPENGZHANG。XIANZAITAYIJINGGUANXIDAONIDESHENGMING,GUJIHOUMIANWEILEFANGZHIWAICHULIUSHI,GENGDUODECHENGSHIHUIJIADAXIANSHOUDELIDU。BURANGLOUSHILIDEQIANCHULAITAOXIAN。SUOYILOUSHIDELIUDONGXINGHUIJINYIBUJIANGDI。SHENZHIBUPAICHUCHAIDIAOYINXINGDAIKUAN。RANGLOUSHIBIANCHENGYITANSISHUI,YUSHIGEJUE。MUDEJIUSHIBUNENGRANGTAZAIZHANGLE,DANYEJUEBUXIWANGTAXIANZAIDIE。SUOYIZHINENGZAIDONGJIEDESHOUDUANSHANGBUDUANJIAMA。

 

GUONEIJINGJIZENGZHANGSUDUFANGHUAN、RENMINBIBIANZHIYUQIQIANGLIEDENGYINSUDETUIDONG,DAREDEHAIWAIZHIYEGENGJIASHOUDAOZHONGGUOJIATINGDEQINGLAI,YOUQISHIXINJUEQIDEZHONGGUOXINZHONGCHANJIECENGJIATINGKAISHIYUELAIYUEDUODIJIANGZICHANPEIZHIDEFANGXIANGSUODINGQUANQIULOUSHI。

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